Oscar predictions 2022
Reminder: I’m hunting for guest posts. If you have something dumb to say, or even something thoughtful, please consider writing in.
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The most wonderful time of the year is March. During this time, we welcome the beginning of Spring and celebrate two of our country's most popular holidays: The Oscars and March Madness. I attended UNC, so I spent a good portion of my education watching basketball; it’s a significant part of the university’s curriculum. As I imagine is true with most colleges with large basketball religions, I signed a blood-oath contract to emotionally invest my happiness in brackets for the entirety of March. Not complaining (the sky-blue kool-aid tasted great) I’ve been swept up in basketball games for the last few days.
Shout out to my Tar Heels for overcoming the Baylor Referees on Saturday. Having to give credit where credit is due, I have to applaud the Refs for their sneaky calls and shadowed baisism. They played hard to keep Baylor in the game.
But, sore winnings aside, this post is about The Oscars - the second biggest event in March. The award show combines two of my favorite hobbies: movies and predictions. By “predictions”, I mean organizing data in Excel. My model is based primarily on the award shows prior to the Oscars, which include the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild Awards, Producers Guild Awards, Critics Choice Awards, and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Awards. Without further ado, here are my predictions for the major oscar categories:
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Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA
(alternative pick: The Power of the Dog)
Looking at a ten year timeframe, BAFTA has correctly predicted the Oscar winner for this category with 50% accuracy; CODA won the BAFTA. Furthermore, according to the Vegas odds, CODA has a 42% chance to win. However, looming on the horizon, The Power of the Dog has slightly higher Vegas odds at 45%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see The Dog snatch away the naked figurine in this category. Dogs have been known to do inappropriate stuff like that. I’m picking CODA over The Dog because of recency bias. Oscar voting runs between March 17th and March 22nd, and the voting body viewed CODA, an incredibly emotional film, more recently.
Best Original Screenplay: Belfast
(alternative pick: Licorice Pizza)
Belfast won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Awards (CCA) for this category. The CCA is the most correlated to correctly picking the Oscar winner. Furthermore, Belfast will win because it’s a well-told war movie from the perspective of an innocent bystander. The movie may make voters sympathize more strongly with the refugees from the Ukraine war, an already-popular social cause. On the flip side, Licorice Pizza is a strong player at the table. In its hand, it holds the BAFTA (a strong predictor) and the best Vegas odds (71%). I’m picking Belfast over Licorice because of the points mentioned earlier, and because I saw Belfast, but only the trailer for Licorice Pizza. I liked Belfast better.
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose
Ariana locked this category. She won at ALL the other award shows.
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur
Troy locked this category. He won at ALL the other award shows.
Best Actor: Will Smith
Will locked this category. He won at ALL the other award shows.
Best Actress: Jessica Chastain
(alternative pick: Nicole Kidman)
Jessica won at the Screen Actors Guild and the Critics Choice Awards. Conversely Nicole Kidman won at the Golden Globes. All these shows have a similar success rate at predicting the Oscars, and, support for Jessica, 2 > 1. Vegas has Jessica as the favorite (57%), followed by Nicole as a far-off second contender (17%). I’m predicting Jessica over Nicole, because Nicole already won this award in 2002. The voting body, Hollywood’s elite, will root for Jessica to score her first naked, golden man.
Best Director: Jane Champion
Jane locked this category. She won at ALL the other award shows.
Best Picture: CODA
(alternative pick: The Power of the Dog)
For the last month, I’ve been listening to movie podcasts praising the genius of The Power of the Dog. They all agree that it’s their favorite to win the most coveted Oscar award. But, tired of listening to their buzz and unimpressed with the Netflix showpiece, I’ve talked myself into picking CODA. Here’s what you need to know: Vegas puts CODA’s winning percent at 38% and The Power of the Dog at 46%. CODA won at the Producers Guild Awards and at the Screen Actors Guild. Comparatively, The Power of the Dog won at the Golden Globes, at the Critics Choice Awards, and at the BAFTA awards. Based on this information, you’d say CODA isn’t favored to win, but I think this only supports them winning. Of the last 7 years, the favorite won 2 times. In 2019, Parasite beat out the favorite, 1917; in 2018, Greenbook beat out the favorite, Roma; In 2017, the Shape of Water beat out the favorite, Three Billboards; in 2016, Moonlight beat out the favorite, La La Land; and in 2015, Birdman beat out the favorite, Boyhood. Unlike the Kentucky Derby, the favorite doesn’t always win at the Oscars. Finally, I think CODA will win, because it will win best adapted screenplay. 70% of the time, the movie that wins best picture wins a best screenplay. This correlates more highly than winning best director which has a lesser, 60% correlation. More important than all that analysis, I watched The Power of the Dog and thought the movie was both boring and confusing; I’ll be rooting against it at the Oscars.
